Depressed about election
process? Blame the negative ads
Article Published September 13,
2004
Toledo Blade
If you've made a choice in the race for president but find yourself feeling depressed about the whole election process, then you know that negative advertising works.
The appearance is that, on both sides, the targets of the ad campaigns have been the opposition's base of support as much as undecided voters.
It's all about the dynamics of momentum. How do you deal with a building tsunami? You could build a great big seawall and hope it withstands the crushing wall of water, or you could reduce the volume of water available to be a part of that swell in the first place.
As the Kerry and Bush campaigns work to develop their own tsunamis in the form of political support, both camps - and their surrogate groups - also are working feverishly to suck dry the pool of available support for the other.
For instance, those voters who admire military service were targets in late July to be caught up in John Kerry's post-convention bounce, coming after four days that celebrated his tours of duty in Vietnam.
Then came the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ads. They were effective because they raised enough questions about his Vietnam service that many potential supporters were neutralized.
Political momentum is sometimes an emotional thing, and the Democratic National Convention was custom built largely to appeal to two emotions - a feeling of anger at George W. Bush and a feeling of admiration for John Kerry. It was a calculated gamble by the Kerry campaign thatthoughtful, as-yet-undecided voters would be swept up in the emotion of their convention.
Polls show it didn't work, as he languished throughout the month of August while countering the attacks.
Now we have attacks against Mr. Bush over his service to country and a book that alleges drug use years ago at Camp David, just as he savors apost-convention bounce. Will the attacks have the same effect on Mr. Bush as the swift boat ads did on the Kerry campaign? It's too soon to tell, but probably not. Here's why:
The accusations surrounding Mr. Bush's military service are intended to influence those same swing voters that Mr. Kerry targeted with his convention program, but we've heard all this stuff about Mr. Bush before. The bottom line is, most have already drawn conclusions about his service - and his presidency.
Intended or not, the current Kitty Kelley book that makes charges against Mr. Bush may demoralize his base of conservative supporters and perhaps get them to stop working so hard to re-elect him. This is a core group of supporters who value morality as a key leadership quality and who might be offended by the accusations, which the White House denies.
The impact may well depend on how credible the book's sources turn out to be. That is where the presidential battle will be fought in the next few weeks.
Welcome to the brave new world of campaign finance reform, where one thing is clear: This latest attempt by Washington to clean up politics and, therefore, boost voter interest has resulted in the most unappealing presidential contest in memory. On the bright side, it has provided a point of unity that stretches across this diverse nation - there's something in this race for practically everyone to hate.
