High-Stakes States
Kerry Ad Strategists Pick 14 Places Where He'll Fight President
By Ron Fournier and Liz Sidoti, Associated Press
September 9, 2004
WASHINGTON — Sen. John Kerry and the Democratic Party are limiting television advertising to just 14 states as the fall campaign opens, curbing their ambitions for a broader playing field against President
Bush.
The shift reduces Missouri, Colorado, Arizona and four Southern states to second-tier status.
President Bush's campaign is likely to follow suit, perhaps by pulling money out of those same seven GOP-leaning states and shifting it to traditionally Democratic battlegrounds.
Kerry strategist Tad Devine said the campaign had several million dollars in advertising time reserved for Missouri, Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, Louisiana, Arkansas and Virginia, which he called a sign of commitment to those battlegrounds. But ads there aren't scheduled to air until October, if then. No money has been given to TV stations for the October buys.
The Kerry team sought to put off narrowing its sights by reserving $50 million worth of advertising time in 20 states through Election Day. But a close look at the advertising plans reveal priorities centered on 14 states in which the Kerry campaign or the Democratic Party will air ads this month:
• The Kerry campaign has bought time in Florida, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Michigan and Oregon.
• The Democratic National Committee is airing commercials in most of those states to keep Kerry competitive with Bush's large ad budgets. In addition, the DNC is on the air in Maine, Washington state, Nevada and Minnesota.
"So much for all the talk of expanding the political map," said Bush strategist Matthew Dowd.
"We're at the point of the campaign where we had to make an honest first cut, but our options are still open in all these states," Devine said.
Asked whether the money earmarked for North Carolina, home of Kerry running mate John Edwards, could be used in one of the top 14 states come October, Devine said, "Sure. We could have a very big buy in Florida."
The most logical reason for pushing states to the second tier is that polls show Kerry trailing Bush in those states — by double digits in Missouri and Arizona.
And after analysis, the Kerry campaign determined that voters in some of his targeted states will react to ads that criticize Bush late in the campaign. Thus, they'll get money late, if ever.
Reducing the map of competitive states could work against Kerry because:
• Of the 14 states put in play by Kerry and his party this month, nine were won by Democrat Al Gore in 2000, three by less than 10,000 votes. That means Kerry has more turf to protect.
• If he no longer has to defend the seven GOP-leaning states, Bush could shift money into states that are leaning toward Kerry, such as Michigan and Minnesota.
• The GOP-leaning states that won't see advertising until October are worth 73 electoral votes. Add that to the solidly Republican states and Bush would have 217 electoral votes.
Winning two of his three big targets — Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania — plus a single other state would put him over 270 electoral votes and back in the White House.
"This is not about counting states, it's about counting electoral votes," said Devine
